Digitalization can change the world. It has already proceeded to change it. It started from different habits. Every morning with a cup of coffee we read different news from our devices. We communicate more using different digital platforms rather than talking to real people. We are gambling more in the Deutsche casino online rather than visiting real casinos in Macau or Monte Carlo. It influences the financial sphere as well.
The invasion of Ukraine by the Russian Federation brought many consequences to the economical and financial sphere. This article will be about understanding the strike and if sanctions really work. At least in the banking sphere.
Russian banks, unlike Western ones, have been actively working in an environment of many correspondent accounts since the 90s. It was in those years both a fashionable and a vital need when all banks started their work from scratch.
In addition to Russian banks that have not been sanctioned and continue to operate in SWIFT, there are many banks in friendly jurisdictions, such as Kazakhstan, Armenia, and other countries. Many banks have correspondent accounts with him. And in the first days of possible confusion, they will be actively used.
But the main assistant in the fight against this scourge called “SWIFT” will of course be China. With whose banks our state-owned banks have been working for a long time. There are daily multibillion-dollar turnovers in mutual settlements. If the situation with SWIFT blocking drags on, then banks will gradually migrate to settlements through large state-owned banks in China.
And the last. Today, the settlement system of our Central Bank is one of the most advanced in the world. The speed of settlements and the speed of transactions is much higher than in any Western banks, where, in addition to technical aspects. There are also huge compliance procedures. There, a primitive payment between two companies, even without using SWIFT, can take days or even weeks. We have a common practice. Payments by several flights during the day and hours. In general, even some slowdown in settlements, already forgotten by Russian clients, will not be very critical for business.
Who Will Eventually Lose?
The main calculations of our business are internal calculations. These are 99% of all payments where SWIFT is not involved at all. And the remaining 1% of intercountry settlements, which is certainly important for international settlements, will find a way to conduct themselves. World buyers are so interested in our export products, and sellers are so interested in our buyers. Everything will be quickly adjusted by the joint efforts of the business.
The main loser will be the SWIFT system itself. The world will quickly see that it is actually not really needed. This means that the Western financial system will lose. The main reason will be because it has been inflating the fetish of its finances for decades in order to collect money from the whole world in Western banks.
Eventually, all the sanctions didn’t influence the main stats of the Russian economy. Of course, normal people lost something. But was it that valuable?